Summit Cannot Mask Russian Decline
Telegraph View: the gulf between
America's national power and
Russia's
weakness is glaring
Telegraph View
Published: 7:34PM BST 06 Jul 2009
One figure should
dispel any delusions of grandeur that Russia
might harbour in the wake of President Dmitry Medvedev's meeting with President
Barack Obama in Moscow.
By 2050, Russia will have
only 14 million more people than Uganda, a country less than two per
cent of its size. A parlous
health system, widespread alcoholism and the shocking fact that Russian women
have more abortions than live births mean that the population of the world's
largest nation falls by about 800,000 a year. There are 142 million Russians
today, but there will be only
107 million in 2050, according to United Nations forecasts, while
Uganda's
population will treble to 93 million.
Far from recovering its status as
a great nation, or even extending its global influence like China or India,
Russia
is locked in long-term decline. We take no pleasure in pointing this out, for
the achievements of the Russian people are exceptional: their literature is
justifiably renowned and their stubborn heroism was indispensable to the defeat
of Hitler. Yet this only adds to the tragic aspect of a country with so many
grounds for national pride seeking to posture as a false superpower. By leading
Mr Obama through the mirrored halls of the Kremlin, Mr Medvedev was consciously
reviving the image of Cold War summitry when the leaders of the two superpowers
met on roughly equal terms to decide the future of the world. "Such
powerful states as Russia
and America
have special responsibility for everything that is happening on this
planet," the Russian president declared.
These vainglorious words came
from a man who is not even master of his own house. Few doubt that Russia's most
powerful politician is Mr Medvedev's
old boss: Vladimir Putin, the prime minister, who
may be planning to return as president at the next election in 2012. Mr Obama generously went along with the
illusion of equality, but the gulf between America's national power and
Russian weakness is glaring. Despite all Mr Putin's efforts, Russia's total defence budget is still only 11
per cent of America's.
Meanwhile, the economy of the United States is 14 times bigger than Russia's.
There are other fantasies,
notably the pretence that Russia
has anything other than the appearance of democratic freedom or has embraced
capitalist reforms. This is a nation where independent journalists risk murder.
Mr Medvedev's administration is also willing to use force against smaller
neighbours: the shameful invasion of Georgia last August must not be
forgotten and will, one hopes, be raised at the G8 summit this week. Russia's
leaders should remember that nothing is more dangerous than to delude oneself.
delicious
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/telegraph-view/5761020/Summit-cannot-mask-Russias-decline.html