Anti CO2 Campaign Like An
Atom Bomb On US Economy
Investors Business Daily
By S. FRED SINGER
March 06, 2009
The
CO2 wars have begun. Presumably following White House directions,
the EPA is ready to issue an "Endangerment Finding" on carbon
dioxide, paving the way for regulations to control CO2 emissions. But with over one
million "major stationary sources," a full-blown application of the
Clean Air Act would be the equivalent of an atomic bomb directed at the
Is this just a bluff — and how will
Congress respond, in view of the financial meltdown, failure of
emission-trading in Europe, and Chinese refusal to cut CO2 emissions? The
answer seems to be: "Not this year!"
An endangerment finding that CO2 is detrimental to "health and human
welfare" must be based on scientific facts — and they will certainly be
disputed. Furthermore, in July 2008 the EPA issued an Advance Notice of
Proposed Rulemaking and there have been many negative comments to which the EPA
must respond — under threat of litigation.
So, proposed action by EPA is not a "done deal" and may only be an
empty threat. Many in Congress understand these matters well — or should. With
fossil fuels supplying over 85 percent of all energy in the
Short of direct regulation by mandates, Cap & Trade is probably the
worst possible scheme, involving not only reporting of emissions, monitoring,
inspection, and punishment, but also special deals for favored industries and
other parties. Some in Congress therefore like the idea of Cap & Trade,
which does not sound like a tax but would cost even more. The White House
estimate is $650 billion over an eight-year period. And of course, it would be
an open invitation to lobby Congress for special favors: the "Lobbyists
Full Employment Act of 2009."
One of the worst features of Cap & Trade is the idea of "soft
caps," which would allow Congress to increase the yearly allowance if the
price for permits seems too high. In essence, anyone who bought emission
permits for future use could find his investment nullified by Act of Congress.
This feature alone may scuttle the legislation.
Professional economists, in and out of the government, prefer a straight carbon
tax to Cap & Trade: it is more transparent, easier to administrate, and
less subject to abuse. But here too Congress can legislate
exemptions — as it does for any other tax. For example, should fire departments
and police departments pay a carbon tax on their fuel use? Should hospitals? Clergy? Department of Defense?
A carbon tax would of course represent a huge subsidy — not only to
uneconomic biofuels, like corn-based ethanol, but
also to nuclear energy. Environmental lobbies would object and soon argue for
an all-encompassing energy tax — not just on fossil fuels. But of course, they
would try to exempt biofuels, wind and solar.
Perhaps the only tax that makes sense is a tax on motor fuels, principally
gasoline — even if one is not concerned about global warming. It would reduce
the amount of driving, decrease oil use and imports, congestion and traffic
deaths. It could be raised gradually, perhaps to the four-dollar level of last
year, and kept there — independent of the price of crude oil. It could be made
revenue-neutral and used to eliminate other regressive taxes.
But why reduce CO2 emission at all?
• CO2 is not a "pollutant." The best evidence we have from climate
science shows that any warming from the emission of greenhouse gases is insignificant
— contrary to claims by the UN-IPCC. See the NIPCC report, Nature Not Human
Activity Rules the Climate, at www.sepp.org.
• The climate has not been warming since 1998 — in spite of steadily rising
CO2 levels. But even if it were warming, reputable economists have shown that
it would yield overall benefits. For details, see the NIPCC report.
• Finally, the level of CO2 is now largely controlled by emissions from
We conclude therefore that the drive to reduce CO2 emissions is not concern
about climate. After all, there are no comparable efforts to limit the global
emission of methane, a potent greenhouse gas; perhaps because methane comes
from farming and cattle-raising, while CO2 is associated with energy production
and industry, and therefore considered "bad."
Ultimately, ideology may be what's fueling the CO2 wars.
Atmospheric physicist S. Fred Singer is Professor Emeritus of
Environmental Sciences at the